(UNG) (BOIL) (KOLD) (NGG25) (TGG25) (NFG25) (ZCH25) (CORN) (ZSH25) (SOYB) 

“Another Polar Vortex & New Year’s Resolutions for Commodity Traders: Cultivating Discipline in 2025”

by Jim Roemer - Meteorologist - Commodity Trading Advisor - Principal, Best Weather Inc. & Climate Predict - Publisher, Weather Wealth Newsletter

• Friday Evening Weekend Report - January 10-12, 2025

• The Arctic Pig looks a bit like me (except for the glasses). We began telling clients about this two weeks ago and now natural gas and various energy spreads are taking notice.
• Will the developing drought in Argentina be enough to help corn and soybean prices deeper in January and February? After all, the dollar is strong, there are big global supplies of grains, and China's demand is a concern.
• How have we helped Weather Wealth clients? We showed them how to take advantage of the extreme January cold and another “Arctic Pig” (I coined this phrase 25 years ago)

Just request a 2 week complimentary subscription to WeatherWealth here:  https://www.bestweatherinc.com/new-membership-options/

As we step into 2025, it’s the perfect time to reflect on our trading habits and to set resolutions that foster personal growth and disciplined practices. Believe me, after 40+ years in this business, I too need to adhere to many of these rules. At times, I am as guilty as anyone is, when it comes to not sticking to them. 

B e l o w   a r e   s o m e   r e s o l u t i o n s   I   t h i n k   y o u   m i g h t   w a n t   t o   c o n s i d e r :

1. Commit to a Trading Plan

Establish a comprehensive trading plan that outlines your goals, strategies, and risk tolerance. Make it a resolution to stick to this plan, adjusting only when necessary, based on thorough analysis rather than emotions. Emotions get the best of us.

I know from experience when I start “hoping” that a weather forecast (or market) will go a certain way, that plan is often a loser. Hope never works; confidence with a strong intuitive feel does work!

(A wise trader I once knew was fond of saying “Hope is a four-letter word" whenever he heard another trader utter it.)

2. Set Clear Goals

Define specific, measurable goals for your trading performance in 2025. Whether it’s achieving a certain percentage return or reducing your drawdown, having clear objectives will help keep you focused and accountable.

3. Practice Emotional Discipline

Yes, that’s me. I would be a complete basket-case without sports. In fact, I’ve been playing competitively since I was 11 years old and even played John McEnroe in high school.

Recognize the emotional triggers that lead to impulsive decisions. Believe me, I can also get caught up in the emotions of the markets moving in one direction or another and try to jump on board rather than sometimes going against the crowd when I do the proper analysis. 

Resolve to implement techniques such as mindfulness or journaling to manage stress and maintain a calm mindset during market fluctuations. This is hard for me to do myself, so I try to exercise each morning (swim, tennis) which puts me in a better state of mind.

4. Review and Reflect Regularly

Schedule weekly or monthly reviews of your trades to analyze what worked and what didn’t. Use these reflections as learning opportunities to refine your strategies and improve future performance.

5. Limit Information Overload

Sometimes, I am very guilty of this (working 70 hour weeks). In the age of information, it’s easy to get overwhelmed. I am on Twitter, Facebook, LinkedIn… etc. On top of all my research, I do radio interviews and manage money at 4 a.m. 

Make it a goal to filter out noise and focus on high-quality, relevant data that directly impacts your trading decisions. This will help you stay focused and avoid analysis paralysis.

6. Prioritize Continuous Education

Dedicate time each month to learn something new about the commodities market—whether through books, webinars, or courses. Expanding your knowledge will enhance your trading skills and keep you adaptable in a changing market. I certainly hope that I have helped educate you.

I try to include a bit of humor at times, along with weather analysis and trading ideas. If you do not know anything about options, take a course on them. They limit risk and can help you sleep at night.

7. Network with Fellow Traders

Resolve to connect with other traders, whether through online forums or local meetups. Sharing insights and experiences can provide valuable perspectives and help you stay motivated throughout the year. However, generally for me, I get confused by other people’s opinions and really need to sit back and trust my own analysis and intuition.

8. Maintain Work-Life Balance

Trading can be demanding, so prioritize self-care and time away from the screens. Easy for me to say. I am always looking at the markets one way or another, sometimes 16 hours a day… at movie theaters, during tennis breaks, at meals, while driving, etc. This is NOT always healthy… especially that last one!

Set boundaries for your trading hours to ensure you’re not sacrificing personal well-being for market opportunities. By focusing on these personal resolutions, you can cultivate disciplined trading habits that not only enhance your performance but also contribute to your overall growth as a trader in 2025. Here’s to a successful year ahead!

9. Don’t buy into panic/greed & don’t sell into fear

Last Sunday night, I mentioned that I thought natural gas would explode to over $4 and it did that in 5 minutes Monday a.m., incredible. However, an old rule of thumb is “buy when everyone is selling and sell when everyone is buying.”

For example, natural gas trading continues extremely challenging and not for the faint of heart. Don’t buy rallies, sell into major ones. Don’t panic and sell major collapses in markets, but buy into fear as long as the fundamentals and weather favor this.

See this video below, it will explain more just how insane commodity trading is. Certainly so in natural gas the last 2 months.

SOURCE:  Paramount Pictures (1983)   To View this YouTube Video  > > > > >  PLEASE   CLICK   HERE

T H A N K S    F O R    Y O U R    I N T E R E S T    I N    C O M M O D I T Y    W E A T H E R  !!!